Howard's Fate seems sealed - IDS offers support!

The interview with IDS appears in this morning's The Independent following right along from yesterday;s disastrous poll. This quote contains what must appear a very chilling assurance from the ousted and betrayed leader:

Mr Howard is persona non grata at the White House for criticising Mr Blair over Iraq. Karl Rove, the President's chief of staff, left a message for Mr Howard telling his office not even to bother trying to see the President.

Mr Duncan Smith, a highly respected friend of the Bush family, has had two recent meetings with Condoleezza Rice, who is about to become the first black female US Secretary of State, and long conversations with Mr Bush. But Mr Duncan Smith is not a man to gloat. He told The Independent: "I am absolutely determined the Conservatives will back Michael all the way through. As long as he wants to do this job, he has my full support."

This Blog's Nightmare Predictions for the Tories Loom Larger

The poll published in the Independent on Sunday today, linked here, clearly sets the start of the real descent this blog always predicted would follow the non-democratic ousting of Iain Duncan Smith and his replacement with the clear no-hoper Michael Howard!

Now that our obvious predictions as to this likely end-result must soon be conceded, even by those who stubbornly refused to previously accept the obvious, perhaps this blog might soon be required to propose some intelligent options for one-time or still hopeful Conservatives to debate. First the poll and the commentaryfrom the story headlined:-

Poll reveals crisis of Howard's 'false dawn'

'IoS' poll: Tory leader fails to register with voters, and Blair - despite bad news from Iraq - looks like increasing his majority

So now the burning question has become what will be the swing from the already slaughtered and subjugated Conservatives TO the Labour or LibDems at the next General Election????

Bravo Michael, how are things going to look in Folkestone even if your schemes and conspiracies with Nigel Farage do work out....all OK in West Dorset Ollie?

Now the actual quote:-

If the changes in vote share reflected in our poll were repeated uniformly across the country next May, Mr Blair would actually increase his majority in the House of Commons to 168.

Enough said? If not go back a year and start reading this blog again from scratch.

Teeter to turn to Toppled!

The following paragraph opens the Daily Telegraph commentary on the latest YouGov opinion poll, linked here:

Conservatives these days must envy Sisyphus. That poor fellow was doomed to spend all eternity rolling an enormous boulder up a hill only to see it roll back down again as soon as it approached the summit. Today's Tories are even worse off. They seem unable to push their boulder within sight of the summit.

In fact of course things are far worse than the present polls even begin to suggest. There is presently no opposition to the three main parties who the electorate are increasingly aware are the cause of their loss of both national sovereignty and democracy.

The turmoil in the UK Independence Party, long a mere plaything of the establishment, Nigel Farage, Tory Peers and sundry others within what seems to be the EU-federalist cause, is poised to come to an early resolution with Robert Kilroy-Silk either emerging victorious or free to move away from the disgraced UKIP party organisation to form a powerful rallying point for Eurorealists presently scattered in a multitude of small pressure groups or previously powerless small parties.

The Tories are poised to very soon cease their Teetering and thereafter start to Topple! Democracy is a powerful cause too long ignored!

Election Analysis by Imperial College Student Newspaper

An wide ranging review of the electoral situation highlights the amazing nature of the UKIP achievement last June and contains clearl warnings about the uncertainties that now lie ahead. It is recommended to be read in full from here, but the following is a sample:
Quote
In the last nationwide test of public opinion before the general election, Labour were soundly beaten by the Conservative party, 27 MEPs to 19. Not only that, but the UK Independence Party (UKIP), a marginal party at best, polled a massive 16% of the vote, only 6% behind Labour and forcing the Liberal Democrats into fourth place. This should have sounded a warning bell about a rise of parties on the right of the political spectrum. Yet no change in the Labour position seems to have been forthcoming.

It is surprising then to see that the Government still has so much support, even when most of these issues go against the grain of the public at large as well as against the beliefs of the ‘traditional’ Labour voter.

In May, Tony Blair is expected to win his third term of office with a comfortable majority of between 30 and 75 seats. This view seems to have been strengthened given the Bush victory and the recent result from Australia.

The question remains: how can such a range of unpopular decisions lead to another parliamentary majority? Well first we have to consider the strength of the opposition.

The Conservative party should be the main challengers in this election, but they are a party in disarray. They lack confidence, ability and a proven winner. At the end of the day, Michael Howard will always be remembered as a loser who went down with the Major government.

So we look further afield to the Liberal Democrats, the up and coming political party with the popular view of the war in Iraq, and the choice of the young professional. Well, that’s how they would like to be seen, but it’s not really the case. Although they will make the largest gains at the next election, and could possibly become the official opposition, they will not make the gains they require to affect Labour’s majority. The minor parties may pick up seats here and there, but the lack of cohesion in all of these organisations will undoubtedly be their downfall.

However, the most important factor will be the voices of the voters we have yet to hear. These are not the protesters or the politically motivated, but the silent majority who have had enough of pandering to the most vocal minorities. This group has been the deciding factors in both the Australian and American elections and they are cautious centre-right voters. This is a much-maligned group, especially in Britain, but we will certainly hear their voice at the next election. They voted for Blair in 1997 and have supported him since. They are unhappy, but they have not abandoned the Labour party just yet.
Unquote

Is Cornwall a sign of Howard's End?

I recommend this review of a Paxman programme posted on ukfuture.net and linked here.

Lying Conservative Prime Ministers

"There will not be a blueprint for a federal Europe" - Edward Heath, as Prime Minister, House of Commons, 25th February 1970

Contrast with...

Presenter (Peter Sissons): "The single currency; a United States of Europe; was that in your mind when you took Britain in?" Edward Heath: "Of course, yes" - BBC Question Time 1st November 1991.

(With thanks to Raymond ... for research and circulation)

Something of the Night?

This report from The Independent on Sunday, linked here, once again reveals the question marks that continually arise regarding Michael Howard's judgement. The following quote gives a flavour of the type of people he now employs, his secretiveness over their appointment providing proof of his knowledge of their likely tactics.

The Conservative leader engaged the services of Mark Textor, a market research expert, two months ago but did not publicise the appointment. His reticence may be explained by Mr Textor's colourful career as a controversial adviser to right-wing politicians in his native Australia.

Among the more serious allegations made against him is that he helped to distribute a damaging questionnaire falsely claiming an opponent supported the right to abortion at nine months.

Mr Textor and others apologised and paid out damages of around £34,000 to settle a court action brought by the Labor candidate who lost the 1995 Canberra by-election.

It is difficult to believe that the Conservative Party was once deemed a respectable political choice - Can it ever be again, under such as Howard? Where is IDS? - Some clues in the Sunday Telegraph by Matthew d'Ancona, linked here, which opens as follows:-

For my money, the most intriguing MP of the moment is Iain Duncan Smith. The former Tory leader, I am told, has done some serious schmoozing in Washington recently, including two audiences with Condoleezza Rice, before her elevation to Secretary of State, and informal conversations with the President himself. Mr Duncan Smith may have been sacked by Tory MPs a year ago but - unlike the man they put in his place - he is still very welcome in the White House.

No less interesting will be IDS's response to the ban on hunting with hounds when it comes into force on February 18. I well recall a conversation with him some years ago when he told me that such a measure might force him into acts of civil disobedience. Whatever else is said about Mr Duncan Smith, he is a man who treats the law - and parliamentary statute in particular - with the utmost reverence.

What a difference a year makes!!!!!

Sykes will not fund the Tories

The following is an excerpt from a report in the Yorkshire Post of 15th November:-

YORKSHIRE POST 15-11-2004

In a separate development, Paul Sykes, who pulled out as UKIP's main backer last month, has revealed to the Yorkshire Post that senior Tories have failed in their attempts to win him over.

The Tories had hoped that the Yorkshireman, who has given an estimated £6m to anti-EU causes, would turn some of his financial firepower to their side.

They have succeeded in prizing him away from UKIP, thanks to a toughening-up of the Tories' Europe policy and the return of leading Tory eurosceptic John Redwood to the shadow cabinet, but no further.

Mr Sykes, who has turned down an invitation for personal talks with Michael Howard, said: "I will be voting Conservative at the next general election but that's all I'm doing.

"I'm not coming back to join the Conservative Party. I can't and won't fund the Tory policy at present. It's misleading.

"I don't agree with their policy over the EU, but they're the best of a bad bunch."

He added that he would give assistance to any candidate, of any party, who agreed with him over the EU.

"I will consider helping anybody who's prepared to tell the truth," he said.

"If they're on message, I'll support them. Tory, Labour or Lib Dem.

"I do have lots of fellow travellers in the Labour Party too.

"I'll campaign with anyone who's in favour of self-government for Britain."

Mr Sykes has a chequered history with the Tory Party, having quit them twice before.

Kilroy is Coming!

Read this and panic if you are a tired old Tory - Kilroy calls for UKIP revolt - linked here.

Out of Touch!

I listened to Radio 4's 'Any Questions' this evening. It was broadcast from Chichester.

It had a Chairman, one of the Dimblebys clearly a BBC Clone, Clare Short ( of reason) and David Willets ( rumoured to be nicknamed the 'Brain" in the Tory Party) whose answers proved conclusively the absence of such that now clearly exists in the Conservative Party.

Only the audience that voted for a ban on smoking were more appalling!

Thank goodness the typical person in the country has probably never heard of 'Any Questions'

Willets would choose Socrates as a mentor, we learned at the programme's close - proving he has never passed beyond the first steps of anything perhaps?

Howard and the Dunnos - No Chance!

The Daily Telegraph has a column on the above topic linked from here. This quote was the most telling for me:-

So one of Britain's biggest political parties is the Don't Know Party. And if you ring up a Dunno person, they usually say: "I voted Labour last time but I don't think I can support Blair again. I can't stick him. He's weak. Labour have lied over everything, not just the war. But I don't know about the others either. The Conservatives don't seem to stand for anything. Well, I dunno." The Dunnos hold the key to the next election.

A wise observer of British politics tells me he thinks the Dunnos actually want a hung Parliament and will subconsciously self-organise and vote tactically to achieve that end....

Unless something better is finally offered!

Michael Howard's Year

What a mess! Anybody recall if he ever answered this letter from the normally politically inept Denis Macshane?

Rt Hon Michael Howard MP
Leader, The Conservative Party
Dear Michael,
As the European Peoples Party congress takes place in Brussels this week I hope you
will take this opportunity to clarify your party’s position as members of the EPP, on a
number of key issues:
1. As you know many in the EPP support the removal of all national vetoes
within the proposed European constitution and call for a single EU income tax.
EPP parties also want Britain and France to surrender their permanent seats on the
UN Security Council.
2. How do you reconcile the majority EPP positions with the Conservative Party
position? Your predecessor Iain Duncan Smith, made his plans to take the
Conservatives out of the EPP clear. Are you committed to this pledge? The
Conservative Party now has a clear decision to make. You can confirm your
party’s membership of the EPP, and endorse its federalist beliefs, or you can
continue with plans to leave the EPP and face the difficult questions of who the
Conservative Party would then join forces with in the European parliament.
3. Can you make clear that the Conservative Party is opposed to the anti-Turkish
rhetoric from the CSU and CDU parties in Germany as well as conservative
politicians in France. Mr Pottering, the leader of the EPP has said that Turkey will
be a “hot theme” in the European Parliament elections. The last thing we need in
Europe is an anti-Turkish campaign whipping up fears and hate in Germany. Will
you ask EPP colleagues to make clear that no democratic politician in Europe
should seek to make the issue of Turkey’s relations with the EU an election issue?
4. In The Times last Friday, Conservative MEPs were quoted as calling for all
European Parliament money currently given to support the the EPP’s work to be
paid directly to Central Office and the headquarters of national right-wing parties.
This policy if implemented would not only mean EU taxpayers’ money going to
extremist parties like the French National Front, it would also be a direct subsidy
from Brussels to national political parties. Do you support your fellow
Conservative MEPs and MPs in advocating Brussels funding of national parties?
Yours sincerely,
Denis MacShane MP
Minister for Europe

UKIP Founder revealed as member of secretive British American Project

Dr Alan Sked is revealed in a report in today's The Guardian, titled 'Friends in High Places' by Andy Beckett, linked here, as a member of a very peculiar group of partularly influential individuals, all at a first glance seemingly totally devoted to Britain's total immersion into the EU.

This report also appears on Ironies and UKIP Uncovered.

No-one is a stronger supporter of the European Union than me and, indeed, my party.

Visit the Conservative Party web-site and read the full report from this link to a speech to the Welsh Assembly by a Mr Bourne, that appears under a photograph of the 'not to be trusted' Tory party leader Michael Howard. History would argue that Mr Bourne is correct - no-one could be a stronger supporter of the European Union than the Conservative Party which means its lies, its totalitarianism, its destruction of democratic process, its corruption, its corporatism, its nepotism....need I go on!

Nothing good has ever emerged from the EU - NOTHING WHATEVER!

Lord Pearson to dine tonight with UKIP's Knapman and Farage.

Lord Pearson, whose excellent paper on the EU has recently been published on the Bruges Group site is reported to be dining with the embattled leaders of UKIP this evening.

It will be recalled that Lord Pearson was one of several peers who lost the Conservative Party Whip in the Lords for recommending a vote for UKIP in the June European elections.

Kerry has conceded the election in the USA. Congratulations to George W. Bush and a REAL conservative party, that of the Republiacans in the USA!

Republican's Smashing Victory in the US - More Gloom for shunned Howard

Nothing Michael Howard attempts works out well.

What a disaster he has been for low tax, liberty loving, free market supporters who might normally consider themselves of a conservative bent within Britain. What a contrast with the stunning victory achieved by George W. Bush's Republicans in the Senate, House and the Presidential race now certainly his. Shock top issue revealed by the exit poles (NB so called Tory Reformers - traditional values!)

Michael Howard who has been rightly ostracised by George Bush faces more years of being ignored. His party needs to think again or Britain needs a new party